The way forward requires a break from the past which has already begun. The past was filled with animosity and violence between the Jewish and Palestinian communities in historic Palestine caused in large part (as I argued in a recent post) by European antisemitism, Ottoman greed, Egyptian and Jordanian land-grabs, Arab hostility to Palestinians, and American indifference.
When Jews were killed in Europe, survivors decided to flee. They had few options but Palestine after the United States closed its doors to them. Palestinians had their land taken legally due to land sales from which they gained nothing. Jews in Palestine understandably wanted to be self-sufficient, given their treatment by non-Jews. But this cut Palestinians out of the economic progress that Jews were fostering. Palestinians lost land and opportunities.
What could have been a win-win situation became a tragic conflict. Palestinians were understandably angry and eventually violently hostile. The Jews were understandably defensive and violent in return. Surrounding Arab countries tried to gain the land of Israel by making war on the new Israeli state. Overmatched in population and wealth, the Israelis nevertheless prevailed, while evicting most of its Palestinian inhabitants.
Rather than assimilate these Palestinians, surrounding Arab states kept them in continuous non-state limbo, which perpetuated the desire of Palestinians to return to their homes in what was by then Israel. Given the general hostility of its Arab neighbors and the probable hostility of most Palestinians wanting to return, it’s understandable that Israel refused re-entry to them.
The surrounding autocratic Arab states used the issue of injustice to Palestinians as a rallying cry to maintain popularity with their own people, most of whom lacked political liberty and were much poorer than citizens of Western democracies. But Arab states did nothing to further Palestinian welfare, unless you count menacing and attacking Israel, such as in 1967 and 1973.
Israelis continue to consider themselves so threatened by neighboring states and by Palestinians wanting to return to their (by now grandparents’) homes, that national security remains the top priority of all Israeli governments. The Hamas invasion of October 7, 2023, helps to perpetuate the Israeli self-concept of a persecuted people in a tiny state surrounded by hostile forces.
After they occupied the West Bank in 1967, Israeli defensive thinking favored Israel indefinitely retaining the West Bank and denying Palestinians the right to establish their own state. Israelis feared that a Palestinian state would be used to launch attacks against Israel and wanted the West Bank to serve as a buffer that enemies would have to cross in their efforts to conquer Israel. Israel could otherwise be split in two by an enemy advancing only a dozen miles from Jordan to the Sea. Armed settlers on the West Bank would help Israel maintain control of this buffer.
But in spite of the Hamas invasion and the continuing hostility of Iran and Hezbollah, the narrative of existential insecurity is outdated. Israel is now much stronger than any group or state inclined to invade. Death statistics illustrate this. In the First Palestinian Intifada (1987-1990), 1,162 Palestinians were killed compared to 150 Israelis. In the Second Intifada (2000-2005), the figures are 3,323 Palestinians to about 950 Israelis. In the current war, deaths among 2.3 million Gazans is at least 10 and probably 20 times that among 7 million Jewish Israelis, not to mention the much greater destruction of infrastructure in Gaza than in Israel.
Israel is no longer surrounded by hostile states. It interacts peacefully with Egypt and Jordan diplomatically and economically. For example, Israel and Jordan are currently planning an exchange of solar energy from Jordan for desalinated water from Israel. In 2020, as part of the Abraham Accords, Israel normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries were on a path to do the same, which is probably why Hamas, which is dedicated to Israel’s destruction, attacked when they did – to thwart the peacemaking which promotes Israel’s continued existence.
So why does Israel oppose a Palestinian state? It’s not security; it’s the same reason that Russia invaded Ukraine and Serbia attacked Kosovo – to regain an ancestral homeland. This project is just as internationally illegal and universally immoral when done by Israel as when done by any other state. And in Israel’s case, it’s as unlikely to improve security, I’ve argued, as the U.S using the same justification to dominate Mexico in perpetuity.
Israel’s greatest security risks stem from the lack of a fully-autonomous Palestinian state because that’s what hinders security cooperation between Israel and its most powerful Arab neighbors. Arab citizens are incensed by Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and their governments want to avoid confrontation with them. Take away Israel’s domination of Palestine, and Israel becomes more secure as its economic and security ties with Arab states improve.
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